Calculate Pot Odds and Probability

In order to be profitable in Texas Holdem Poker it is essential to understand how to calculate pot odds and the probability of making hands as the game unfolds. Many people who don't play poker think you need to be some sort of math wizard in order to play the game. This is not true. While it helps to be good with numbers, there are some simple rules that you can learn to quickly count your "outs" and determine your pot odds and probability of winning the hand.

Counting Outs

In Texas Holdem poker the term "out" is used to describe a single card that will make or improve your hand. For example, if I have 4 cards to a straight with the 4 of clubs, 5 of hearts, 6 of spades, and 7 of hearts, I can consider the 8 of clubs an "out" for me in the deck, because this would complete my straight. Keeping in mind that there are 4 suits to each card, my open ended straight would have a total of 8 outs. Any suit of 3 and any suit of 8.

So whenever you look at your hand simply think to yourself which cards in the deck you need to improve your hand, and count these as outs. This number of "outs" is very important in Texas Holdem poker as we move on.

Calculate Probability

There is a rule used by Texas Holdem poker players called the rule of 4 and 2. This rule simply states that on the "flop" you will take your number of "outs" and multiply it by 4, giving you an approximate percentage chance of improving your hand by the river card. For example, with our 8 outs for an open ended straight, we can multiply 8 by 4 to let us know we have roughly a 32% chance of making our straight by the time the river card comes.

After the turn card has come, you now multiply your "outs" by 2 to give you the percent chance of making your hand on the river card. If we missed our open ended straight on the turn card, we now have 8 outs times 2, giving us roughly a 16% chance of hitting our straight on the river.

As you can see, in Texas Holdem poker on the flop you multiply your outs by 4 because there are 2 cards yet to come, and on the turn you multiply your outs by 2 because there is only 1 card left to come. This again is a simply way to give you a rough percentage chance of making your hand. This will help in determining whether or not you have "proper pot odds" as we move on.

Calculate Pot Odds

Calculating Pot Odds in Texas Holdem poker will allow you to determine whether or not you should continue on in a hand based on the size of the pot, size of the bet, and number of players left in the hand. Keep in mind that this is one of many factors taken into account when deciding what play to make.

In Texas Holdem poker, when a bet is made on the flop, turn, or river, the first thing you need to think about is the possible strength of your opponents hand. Keeping this in mind, you will then need to calculate the number of "outs" left in the deck that would give you the winning hand.

The next thing to consider is how big the bet is in relation to the size of the pot. For example, suppose someone bets $4 into a $12 pot. If everyone else folds, my call would make the pot a total of $20. So my $4 call is 20% of the pot. Assuming we have our open ended straight with a 32% chance of making our hand by the river, it would mean that i have proper "pot odds" to call this bet.

In Texas Holdem you also need to take into account the other players involved in the pot. Suppose now that someone over bets $14 into a $12 pot. If everyone else folds, my $14 call would be 35% of the total $40 pot, making my 32% open ended straight a more difficult call to make. However, if another person in the hand decides to call the $14 bet, now my $14 call would be 26% of the total $54 pot, making my 32% chance open ended straight an easier call.

Ignoring Pot Odds

While calculating pot odds is very important in Texas Holdem poker, you also need to make your decisions based on what cards are on the table and what you think your opponent might have. For example, you may very well make your straight on the turn. But what if this card completes a possible flush, and there are 3 other people in the hand? Sometimes it is good to ignore pot odds when you are sure you are beat.