• The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be in terminal decline.

• Leadership seems to be the main reason of the party’s decline.

• After the 2009 elections its problems have become still more compounded.

• The interference of the RSS in the party’s affairs has now become more manifest.

• Some people think that the party does not have anything to offer.

The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be in terminal decline. The party, in its present incarnation, first entered the fray in the year 1984 and won just two parliamentary seats, securing mere 7.4% votes. Its vote share went up to 11.4% five years later which gave the party 86 seats. Two years later, in the year 1991, the party’s performance improved further and it captured 120 seats in the Indian lower house of the Parliament (Lok Sabha) on the strength of 20.8% vote. In the year 1996, the party’s vote share declined slightly to 20.3% but because of better management of election it was able to win 161 seat. The party reached its peak in the year 1998 securing 25.6% votes and 182 seats. The decline started from there and the next year in 1999, though the number of seats remained constant at 182, its vote percentage declined to 23.8%. In the year 2004 the vote percentage further declined to 22.2% and it could win only 138 seats. In the year 2009, the decline in the party’s fortune became more clear. It could win only 116 seats on the strength of 18.8% votes.

According to many, there are many reasons of the decline of the party’s fortunes. Leadership seems to be the main reason. Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee has gone off the scene as old age has caught him and his frail health does not permit him to lead the party and the nation. Mr Lal Krishna Advani, the next in line to Mr Vajpayee, could not lead the party to the victory and it lost miserably in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP projected Mr Advani as the future Prime Minister of India. But his relentless internet and print media campaign failed to muster support of the general public. During the elections he raised frivolous issues. He raised the issue of the Indian money stashed in the Swiss banks. He led a personal attack against Prime Minister Manmohamn Singh, calling him a weak prime minister. Both these issues could elicit the desired response from the public.

The general impression of the politicians of all hues among the public, sadly is that all of them are corrupt, which, of course, is not true. But the public thinks, rightly or wrongly, that all of them have tons of black money in various forms and stashed away at various places, including the foreign particularly Swiss, banks. Therefore, the protestations of Mr Advani could not strike a chord among the public. Particularly, as the BJP itself has previously been in the government with the good Mr Advani being its deputy prime minister and home minister.

The second issue he raised about Mr Manmohan Singh being a weak prime minister and the one who is controlled by someone else, namely the Congress Party president Mrs Sonia Gandhi, was, in fact, in bad taste. The Congress party naturally reminded Mr Advani that it was during the BJP rule when the Indian foreign minister had taken the terrorists with him to Qandhar. It is also well known in the country that the BJP is controlled by its mentor, the Rashtriya Sewak Sangh (RSS).

Moreover, the second line leadership of the party confused both the party and the nation. Mr Arun Jaitly, in his wisdom, hinted that the Gujarat Chief Minister Mr Narendra Modi, will become the next Prime Minister of India. Such statements confused everybody. Some thought that the vote for Mr Advani will, in fact, be a vote for Mr Modi, who, obviously, is not liked by many.

The issues raised by the prime ministerial candidate of the party namely the Indian black money stashed in the Swiss banks and the weakness of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh shows that party lacks the issues. It is suffering from the bankruptcy of issues and has nothing to say to the public.

All this led to the defeat of the party in the elections. After the elections its problems became still more compounded. It was obvious that Mr Advani , 82, has become old and can not lead the party in the next elections. But the alternative available for the party in the absence of Mr Advani is not very impressive. The second line of leadership of the BJP consists of Mr Rajnath Singh, Ms Sushma Swaraj, Mr Arun Jaitley, Mr Venkaiah Naidu, Mr Murli Manohar Joshi and Mr Narendra Modi. None of them, for various reasons, is able to inspire confidence among the public.

Another issue which though was known all along but became more manifest after the elections of 2009 is the interference of the RSS in the party’s affairs, which did no go down well with the public. The election results of the assemblies of three states namely, Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh show that nothing has improved for the party. If anything, its condition has worsened.

Some people think that the BJP did well earlier because of the momentum of the Ram Temple movement. This movement took the party to power. But as all movements peter out after some time, this movement also lost its momentum. Today the voter is making smart choices and thinks that the party does not have anything to offer.

By: Iqbal Amrohi